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Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, although experts believe PVV is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a four-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, PVV's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June over disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a election period dominated by topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party becomes the largest party yet is excluded from power. However, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require several months, political observers indicate that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.